DATA-DRIVEN DECISION-MAKING AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE CORPORATE CASH MANAGEMENT PROBLEM

Esta tesis investiga el problema de gestión de tesorería desde un punto de vista multidimensional. La gestión de tesorería trata de equilibrar la cantidad que se mantiene en efectivo y la que se dedica a inversiones a corto plazo. Normalmente, los tesoreros toman decisiones basándose en el nivel óptimo de tesorería por motivos operativos y de precaución. En esta tesis exploramos las oportunidades para mejorar la toma decisiones derivadas de modelar la incertidumbre presente en los flujos de caja con la ayuda de procedimientos basados en datos en un entorno multiobjetivo. Por un lado, los tesoreros pueden conseguir ahorros a través de la previsión de tesorería. Para ello, realizamos un estudio empírico con el objetivo de aprovechar las más recientes técnicas de aprendizaje automático como paso clave para conectar el análisis de los datos disponibles con los procesos de optimización en la gestión de tesorería. Por otro lado, los tesoreros pueden estar interesados no solo en el coste sino también en al riesgo asociado a sus decisiones. Por esta razón, tratamos el problema de gestión de tesorería desde una perspectiva multiobjetivo, considerando tanto el coste como el riesgo. Además, debido a la cambiante situación financiera actual, exploramos la selección de modelos de gestión de tesorería en función de diferentes condiciones operativas y de su robustez. También demostramos la utilidad de las previsiones a través de un nuevo modelo de gestión de tesorería que mejora el estado del arte al garantizar soluciones óptimas. Como la mayoría de las empresas trabaja con sistemas de tesorería con múltiples cuentas bancarias, desarrollamos un marco para la formulación y solución del problema de gestión de tesorería con múltiples cuentas bancarias. Finalmente, en un intento de acercar teoría y práctica, también ofrecemos una librería de software en Python para usuarios interesados en la construcción de sistemas de ayuda a la toma de decisiones en gestión de tesorería.This thesis investigates the cash management problem from a multidimensional perspective. Cash management focuses on finding the balance between cash holdings and short-term investments. Typically, cash managers make decisions based usually on a firm's optimal cash balance for operational and precautionary purposes. We here explore the opportunities for improved decision-making derived from modeling cash flow uncertainty with the help of data-driven procedures within a multiobjective context. On the one hand, cash managers may achieve cost savings by forecasting future cash flows. To this end, we perform an empirical analysis of daily cash flow time-series to take advantage of modern machine learning techniques as a key step to connect data analysis and optimization methods in cash management. On the other hand, cash managers may be interested not only in the cost but also in the risk associated to decision-making. Thus, we address the cash management problem from a multiobjective perspective focusing on both cost and risk. In addition, under the current situation of time-varying financial circumstances, the selection of cash management models according to operating conditions and its robustness are worth considering questions. We also show the utility of forecasts through a new cash management model which outperforms the state-of-the-art by guaranteeing optimal solutions. Since most firms usually deal with cash management systems with multiple accounts, we develop a framework to formulate and solve the multiple bank accounts cash management problem. Finally, in an attempt to fill the gap between theory and practice, we also provide a software library in Python for practitioners interested in building decision support systems for cash management.Esta tesi investiga el problema de gestió de tresoreria des d'un punt de vista multidimensional. La gestió de tresoreria tracta d'equilibrar la quantitat que es manté en efectiu i la que es dedica a inversions a curt termini. Normalment, el tresorers prenen decisions basant-se en el nivell òptim de tresoreria per motius operatius i de precaució. En aquesta tesi explorem les oportunitats per millorar la presa de decisions derivades de modelitzar la incertesa present en els fluxos de caixa amb l'ajuda de procediments basats en dades. Per un costat, els tresorers poden aconseguir estalvis de costos mitjançant la previsió de tresoreria. Per tal d'aconseguir-ho, realitzem d'un estudi empíric amb l'objectiu d'aprofitar les més recents tècniques d'aprenentatge automàtic per connectar l'anàlisi de les dades disponbiles amb els procesos d'optimització en la gestió de tresoreria. Per altra banda, els tresorers poden estar interessats no sols en el cost sinó també en el risc associat a les seues decisions. Per tant, tractem el problema de gestió de tresoreria des d'un punt de vista multiobjectiu, fixant-se tant en el cost com en el risc. A més a més, degut a la canviant situació financera actual, explorem la selecció de models de gestió de tresoreria en funció de diferents condicions operatives i de la seua robustesa. També demostrem la utilitat de les previsions mitjançant un nou model de tresoreria que millora l'estat de l'art al garantir solucions òptimes. Com que la majoria d'empreses treballa amb sistemes de tresoreria amb múltiples comptes bancaris, desenvolupem un marc per a la formulació i solució del problema de gestió de tresoreria amb múltiples comptes bancaris. Finalment, en un intent d'apropar teoria i pràctica, també oferim un llibreria en Python per a usuaris interessats en la construcció de sistemes d'ajuda a la presa de decisions en la gestió de tresoreria.Salas Molina, F. (2017). DATA-DRIVEN DECISION-MAKING AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE CORPORATE CASH MANAGEMENT PROBLEM [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/95408TESI

Non-linear Neutrosophic Numbers and Its Application to Multiple Criteria Performance Assessment

[EN] The concept of fuzzy set has been extended by neutrosophic fuzzy sets to represent sets whose elements have different degrees of membership characterized by a truth-membership function, an indeterminacy-membership function and a falsity-membership function. It is usually assumed that these functions are linear, hence excluding the possibility of non-linearity in many decision-making situations. From an alternative definition of non-linear neutrosophic numbers, we develop the concepts of (alpha, beta, gamma)-cuts, possibility mean, variance, skewness and a new possibility score function. These concepts are useful to deal with multiple criteria decision making problems. We illustrate the practical use of these concepts by means of a real case study in supply chain risk management in the motor industry. Due to the fact that neutrosophic sets have been used in several areas of decision-making, finance and economics, we argue that our proposal contributes to enhance the application of neutrosophic numbers.Open Access funding provided thanks to the CRUE-CSIC agreement with Springer Nature.Reig-Mullor, J.; Salas-Molina, F. (2022). Non-linear Neutrosophic Numbers and Its Application to Multiple Criteria Performance Assessment. International Journal of Fuzzy Systems. 24(6):2889-2904. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40815-022-01295-y2889290424

Shared value economics: an axiomatic approach

The concept of shared value was introduced by Porter and Kramer as a new conception of capitalism. Shared value describes the strategy of organizations that simultaneously enhance their competitiveness and the social conditions of related stakeholders such as employees, suppliers and the natural environment. The idea has generated strong interest, but also some controversy due to a lack of a precise definition, measurement techniques and difficulties to connect theory to practice. We overcome these drawbacks by proposing an economic framework based on three key aspects: coalition formation, sustainability and consistency, meaning that conclusions can be tested by means of logical deductions and empirical applications. The presence of multiple agents to create shared value and the optimization of both social and economic criteria in decision making represent the core of our quantitative definition of shared value. We also show how economic models can be characterized as shared value models by means of logical deductions. Summarizing, our proposal builds on the foundations of shared value to improve its understanding and to facilitate the suggestion of economic hypotheses, hence accommodating the concept of shared value within modern economic theory.Comment: 22 pages, 4 figure

Sustainability performance assessment with intuitionistic fuzzy composite metrics and its application to the motor industry

The performance assessment of companies in terms of sustainability requires to find a balance between multiple and possibly conflicting criteria. We here rely on composite metrics to rank a set of companies within an industry considering environmental, social and corporate governance criteria. To this end, we connect intuitionistic fuzzy sets and composite programming to propose novel composite metrics. These metrics allow to integrate important environmental, social and governance principles with the gradual membership functions of fuzzy set theory. The main result of this paper is a sustainability assessment method to rank companies within a given industry. In addition to consider multiple objectives, this method integrates two important social principles such as maximum utility and fairness. A real-world example is provided to describe the application of our sustainability assessment method within the motor industry. A further contribution of this paper is a multicriteria generalization of the concept of magnitude of a fuzzy number

On the use of multiple criteria distance indexes to find robust cash management policies

[EN] Cash management decision-making can be handled from a multiobjective perspective by optimizing not only cost but also risk. Nevertheless, choosing the best policies under a changing context is by no means straightforward. To this end, we rely on compromise programming to incorporate robustness as an additional goal to cost and risk within a multiobjective framework. As a result, we propose to calculate robustness as a multiple criteria distance index that is able to identify the best compromise policies in terms of cost and risk. Such policies are also robust to cash flow regime changes. We show its utility by transforming the Miller and Orr s cash management model into its robust counterpart using real data from an industrial company.Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad [grant number Collectiveware TIN2015-66863-C2-1-R], [grant number 2014 SGR 118]. Work partially funded by projects Collectiveware TIN2015-66863-C2-1-R (MINECO/FEDER) and 2014 SGR 118.Salas-Molina, F.; Rodriguez-Aguilar, JA.; Pla Santamaría, D. (2019). On the use of multiple criteria distance indexes to find robust cash management policies. INFOR Information Systems and Operational Research. 57(3):345-360. https://doi.org/10.1080/03155986.2017.1282291S34536057

A multi-objective approach to the cash management problem

[EN] Cash management is concerned with optimizing costs of short-term cash policies of a company. Different optimization models have been proposed in the literature whose focus has been only placed on a single objective, namely, on minimizing costs. However, cash managers may also be interested in risk associated to cash policies. In this paper, we propose a multi-objective cash management model based on compromise programming that allows cash managers to select the best policies, in terms of cost and risk, according to their risk preferences. The model is illustrated through several examples using real data from an industrial company, alternative cost scenarios and two different measures of risk. As a result, we provide cash managers with a new tool to allow them deciding on the level of risk to take in daily decision-making.Work partially funded by projects Collectiveware TIN2015-66863-C2-1-R (MINECO/FEDER) and 2014 SGR 118.Salas-Molina, F.; Pla Santamaría, D.; Rodriguez Aguilar, JA. (2016). A multi-objective approach to the cash management problem. Annals of Operations Research. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-016-2359-1S115Baccarin, S. (2009). Optimal impulse control for a multidimensional cash management system with generalized cost functions. European Journal of Operational Research, 196(1), 198–206.Ballestero, E. (1998). Approximating the optimum portfolio for an investor with particular preferences. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 49(9), 998–1000.Ballestero, E. (2005). Mean-semivariance efficient frontier: A downside risk model for portfolio selection. Applied Mathematical Finance, 12(1), 1–15.Ballestero, E., & Pla-Santamaria, D. (2004). Selecting portfolios for mutual funds. Omega, 32(5), 385–394.Ballestero, E., & Romero, C. (1998). Multiple criteria decision making and its applications to economic problems. Berlin: Springer.Bates, T. W., Kahle, K. M., & Stulz, R. M. (2009). Why do US firms hold so much more cash than they used to? The Journal of Finance, 64(5), 1985–2021.Baumol, W. J. (1952). The transactions demand for cash: An inventory theoretic approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 66(4), 545–556.Chen, X., & Simchi-Levi, D. (2009). A new approach for the stochastic cash balance problem with fixed costs. Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, 23(04), 545–562.Constantinides, G. M., & Richard, S. F. (1978). Existence of optimal simple policies for discounted-cost inventory and cash management in continuous time. Operations Research, 26(4), 620–636.da Costa Moraes, M. B., & Nagano, M. S. (2014). Evolutionary models in cash management policies with multiple assets. Economic Modelling, 39, 1–7.da Costa Moraes, M. B., Nagano, M.S., Sobreiro, V. A. (2015). Stochastic cash flow management models: A literature review since the 1980s. In P. Guarnieri (Ed.), Decision models in engineering and management. Decision engineering (pp. 11–28). Switzerland: Springer.Eppen, G. D., & Fama, E. F. (1969). Cash balance and simple dynamic portfolio problems with proportional costs. International Economic Review, 10(2), 119–133.Gao, H., Harford, J., & Li, K. (2013). Determinants of corporate cash policy: Insights from private firms. Journal of Financial Economics, 109(3), 623–639.Girgis, N. M. (1968). Optimal cash balance levels. Management Science, 15(3), 130–140.Gormley, F. M., & Meade, N. (2007). The utility of cash flow forecasts in the management of corporate cash balances. European Journal of Operational Research, 182(2), 923–935.Gregory, G. (1976). Cash flow models: A review. Omega, 4(6), 643–656.Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. 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Review of Financial Studies, 29(2), 309–348.Pla-Santamaria, D., & Bravo, M. (2013). Portfolio optimization based on downside risk: A mean-semivariance efficient frontier from dow jones blue chips. Annals of Operations Research, 205(1), 189–201.Premachandra, I. (2004). A diffusion approximation model for managing cash in firms: An alternative approach to the Miller–Orr model. European Journal of Operational Research, 157(1), 218–226.Roijers, D. M., Vamplew, P., Whiteson, S., & Dazeley, R. (2013). A survey of multi-objective sequential decision-making. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 48(1), 67–113.Ross, S. A., Westerfield, R., & Jordan, B. D. (2002). Fundamentals of corporate finance (6th ed.). NewYork: McGraw-Hill.Sharpe, W. F. (1966). Mutual fund performance. The Journal of Business, 39(1), 119–138.Sharpe, W. F. (1994). The sharpe ratio. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 21(1), 49–58.Srinivasan, V., & Kim, Y. H. (1986). Deterministic cash flow management: State of the art and research directions. Omega, 14(2), 145–166.Steuer, R. E., Qi, Y., & Hirschberger, M. (2007). Suitable-portfolio investors, nondominated frontier sensitivity, and the effect of multiple objectives on standard portfolio selection. Annals of Operations Research, 152(1), 297–317.Stone, B. K. (1972). The use of forecasts and smoothing in control-limit models for cash management. Financial Management, 1(1), 72–84.Whalen, E. L. (1966). A rationalization of the precautionary demand for cash. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80(2), 314–324.Yu, P. L. (2013). Multiple-criteria decision making: Concepts, techniques, and extensions. Berlin: Springer.Zeleny, M. (1982). Multiple criteria decision making. NewYork: McGraw-Hill.Zopounidis, C. (1999). Multicriteria decision aid in financial management. European Journal of Operational Research, 119(2), 404–415

Characterizing compromise solutions for investors with uncertain risk preferences

[EN] The optimum portfolio selection for an investor with particular preferences was proven to lie on the normalized efficient frontier between two bounds defined by the Ballestero (1998) bounding theorem. A deeper understanding is possible if the decision-maker is provided with visual and quantitative techniques. Here, we derive useful insights as a way to support investor's decision-making through: (i) a new theorem to assess balance of solutions; (ii) a procedure and a new plot to deal with discrete efficient frontiers and uncertain risk preferences; and (iii) two quality metrics useful to predict long-run performance of investors.Work partially funded by projects Collectiveware TIN2015-66863-C2-1-R (MINECO/FEDER) and 2014 SGR 118Salas-Molina, F.; Rodriguez-Aguilar, JA.; Pla Santamaría, D. (2019). Characterizing compromise solutions for investors with uncertain risk preferences. Operational Research. 19(3):661-677. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12351-017-0309-6S661677193Amiri M, Ekhtiari M, Yazdani M (2011) Nadir compromise programming: a model for optimization of multi-objective portfolio problem. Expert Syst Appl 38(6):7222–7226Ballestero E (1998) Approximating the optimum portfolio for an investor with particular preferences. J Oper Res Soc 49:998–1000Ballestero E (2007) Compromise programming: a utility-based linear-quadratic composite metric from the trade-off between achievement and balanced (non-corner) solutions. Eur J Oper Res 182(3):1369–1382Ballestero E, Pla-Santamaria D (2004) Selecting portfolios for mutual funds. Omega 32(5):385–394Ballestero E, Pla-Santamaria D, Garcia-Bernabeu A, Hilario A (2015) Portfolio selection by compromise programming. In: Ballestero E, Pérez-Gladish B, Garcia-Bernabeu A (eds) Socially responsible investment. A multi-criteria decision making approach, vol 219. Springer, Switzerland, pp 177–196Ballestero E, Romero C (1996) Portfolio selection: a compromise programming solution. J Oper Res Soc 47(11):1377–1386Ballestero E, Romero C (1998) Multiple criteria decision making and its applications to economic problems. Kluwer Academic Publishers, BerlinBilbao-Terol A, Pérez-Gladish B, Arenas-Parra M, Rodríguez-Uría MV (2006) Fuzzy compromise programming for portfolio selection. Appl Math Comput 173(1):251–264Bravo M, Ballestero E, Pla-Santamaria D (2012) Evaluating fund performance by compromise programming with linear-quadratic composite metric: an actual case on the caixabank in spain. J Multi-Criteria Decis Anal 19(5–6):247–255Ehrgott M, Klamroth K, Schwehm C (2004) An MCDM approach to portfolio optimization. Eur J Oper Res 155(3):752–770Fawcett T (2006) An introduction to ROC analysis. Pattern Recognit Lett 27(8):861–874Hernández-Orallo J, Flach P, Ferri C (2013) ROC curves in cost space. Mach Learn 93(1):71–91Markowitz H (1952) Portfolio selection. J Finance 7(1):77–91Pla-Santamaria D, Bravo M (2013) Portfolio optimization based on downside risk: a mean-semivariance efficient frontier from dow jones blue chips. Ann Oper Res 205(1):189–201Ringuest JL (1992) Multiobjective optimization: behavioral and computational considerations. Springer Science & Business Media, BerlinSteuer RE, Qi Y, Hirschberger M (2007) Suitable-portfolio investors, nondominated frontier sensitivity, and the effect of multiple objectives on standard portfolio selection. Ann Oper Res 152(1):297–317Xidonas P, Mavrotas G, Krintas T, Psarras J, Zopounidis C (2012) Multicriteria portfolio management. Springer, BerlinYu P-L (1973) A class of solutions for group decision problems. Manag Sci 19(8):936–946Yu P-L (1985) Multiple criteria decision making: concepts, techniques and extensions. Plenum Press, BerlinZeleny M (1982) Multiple criteria decision making. McGraw-Hill, New Yor

A multidimensional review of the cash management problem

In this paper, we summarize and analyze the relevant research on the cash management problem appearing in the literature. First, we identify the main dimensions of the cash management problem. Next, we review the most relevant contributions in this field and present a multidimensional analysis of these contributions, according to the dimensions of the problem. From this analysis, several open research questions are highlighted

A multicriteria approach to manage credit risk under strict uncertainty

Assessing the ability of applicants to repay their loans is generally recognized as a critical task in credit risk management. Credit managers rely on financial and market information, usually in the form of ratios, to estimate the quality of credit applicants. However, there is no guarantee that a given set of ratios contains the information needed for credit classification. Decision rules under strict uncertainty aim to mitigate this drawback. In this paper, we propose the use of a moderate pessimism decision rule combined with dimensionality reduction techniques and compromise programming. Moderate pessimism ensures that neither extreme optimistic nor pessimistic decisions are taken. Dimensionality reduction from a set of ratios facilitates the extraction of the relevant information. Compromise programming allows to find a balance between quality of debt and risk concentration. Our model produces two critical outputs: a quality assessment and the optimum allocation of funds. To illustrate our multicriteria approach, we include a case study on 29 firms listed in the Spanish stock market. Our results show that dimensionality reduction contributes to avoid redundancy and that quality-diversification optimization is able to produce budget allocations with a reduced number of firms

Monitoring multidimensional phenomena with a multicriteria composite performance interval approach

[EN] In the last two decades, the construction of composite indicators to measure and compare multidimensional phenomena in a broad spectrum of domains has increased considerably. Different methodological approaches are used to summarise huge datasets of information in a single figure. This paper proposes a new approach that consists in computing a multicriteria composite performance interval based on different aggregation rules. The suggested approach provides an additional layer of information as the performance interval displays a lower bound from a non-compensability perspective, and an upper bound allowing for full-compensability. The outstanding features of this proposal are: 1) a distance-based multicriteria technique is taken as the baseline to construct the multicriteria performance interval; 2) the aggregation of distances/separation measures is made using particular cases of Minkowski Lp metric; 3) the span of the multicriteria performance interval can be considered as a sign of the dimensions or indicators balance.Garcia-Bernabeu, A.; Hilario Caballero, A.; Pla Santamaría, D.; Salas-Molina, F. (2021). Monitoring multidimensional phenomena with a multicriteria composite performance interval approach. International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making (Online). 8(4):368-385. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJMCDM.2021.120760S3683858